State of the Economy
State of the Economy
What I found in my travels from Wisconsin to California
We’re in a recession. We’re not in a recession.
Consumer spending is slowing down. The consumer continues to spend at all-time record levels.
Inflation is so high people can’t afford their everyday living expenses. Airlines, hotels and ABNBs are packed with people traveling.
Doesn’t this sounds familiar?
Headlines and data have been all over the board for months. How headlines are written or presented can give different outlooks on how the economy is actually doing. It’s hard to get a true read on how things truly are. So I decided to find out for myself.
This past week I traveled from my home in central Wisconsin to California for the Future Proof Festival. My plan was to ask everyone I encountered along the way what they’re seeing in their job. I did this a week before I left in Wisconsin followed by the time I was in California. It made for some very interesting conversations. Here is what I found.
Airlines- My biggest fear flying was that I was destined to have a delayed or cancelled flight. Everyone it seems that has flown this year has experienced that or the loss of their luggage. To my surprise all my flights were actually early arrivals. No lost luggage as I didn’t have to check any bags. So my flying experience surpassed my expectations. Props to Delta! Thank you!
I flew from Appleton to Minneapolis to Orange County. The terminals were all packed full of people. The most I’ve ever seen in Minneapolis airport. My driver said the John Wayne Airport in Orange County used to have certain times of the day that were slower, but now everyday all day long is packed with traffic congestion.
All the flights were jammed full and had standbys if any seats became available. In talking with a few flight attendants and pilots they said their schedules are really tight now. Demand was the highest they’ve ever seen. It has started to decrease from where it was, but is still much higher than normal. They’ve been working through getting more people to help in all phases of air travel, which has helped improve the experiences for travelers.
Ubers- In all I took nine Uber rides. The pricing was double and in some cases triple from what it was in the past. All the drivers acknowledged that prices have skyrocketed, but they’re busier than ever. It has been this steady busy since the COVID restrictions were lifted. They all agreed that at some point demand may decline, but for now most of them could be busy driving all day and night if they wanted.
A driver who took me to dinner has the perfect way to relax. He drives Uber in the evening and then he can surf during the day. What a setup for your day! I wonder if he was among this pack every morning surfing by the Huntington Beach Pier. It is like this every morning along the beach. No wonder they call it Surf City USA.
Coffee Shops- No matter where you go people need to seek out their coffee shops. I am an early riser so I’m usually among the first customers. Of all the places I went it felt like the baristas at the local coffee shops were the most stressed and overworked. Of the six shops I visited all of them had for hire signs and in conversation said that hiring and keeping staff has been their biggest challenge. Getting customers in the door is the easy part, serving them from order to out the door is the challenge.
Multiple shops had reduced hours due to staffing issues. To also help their staff they’ve reduced the number of items they offer on their menus. It felt like some were trying to tread water until they could find additional help to be able to move to target operations and hours they want to be open.
Restaurants- If you know me, you knew restaurants would be on my list! Now I usually go a bit early before places get too busy for two reasons. I like to talk with my server before they’re being rushed and also to make sure I can order anything on the menu before a place runs the risk of running out. The places that I went were two-thirds full. At prime dinner time most were full.
Upon speaking to the servers and bartenders it sounds like they’ve been staying steady. Even with the spikes in prices they’ve seen good amounts of business. Some of the more expensive items don’t get ordered as much as in the past. They had a big surge in demand and reservations, but lately they’ve seen it tail off into what they’re starting to view as their new normal. Dishwashers and bussers were all needed at every place I went to.
Yes, I know many will ask where I ate in Orange County. Here are the three spots I checked out. Keep in mind my restaurant selections usually will tilt towards places with steak and bourbon as selections.
Watertable, Fable & Spirit & The Recess Room. I will be going back to Watertable and Fable & Spirit. Just to make you hungry, here was my prime tomahawk steak from Watertable.
Retail Stores- I stopped by quite a mix of retail stores from Lululemon to Build-A-Bear to surf shops. In almost every small locally owned store I stopped by they shared that they have slowed down. There wasn’t the urge to hire people like the coffee shops did. In handling a slow down it seemed that these places all were prepared for it.
All the shelves were stocked full. Inventory levels looked rather high to me. In the clothing stores there seemed to be ample selection of sizes available. Considering that we just came out of back-to-school shopping I was a bit surprised by this. Almost all the items I checked at Target, Lululemon and American Eagle had loads of inventory.
The larger retail stores all had hiring and hiring events coming up. You could tell they were having stocking issues as there were boxes and pallet loads of items sitting in view to be stocked. I did ask associates how traffic was and they said it has slowed down but they still needed help as they’re short on workers.
You can tell that the travel related industry is still doing well. Consumer discretionary related businesses are definitely on the other side. They’ve seen some slowing. The job openings are surely there. No doubt about that. With it being this long and still so many open jobs, I’m expecting the need for more help to continue.
Like the stock market nobody knows for certain what consumer spending and the economy will be like moving forward. Certain sectors and industries look poised to continue their momentum, while others are planning on an extended slowdown or now resigned to the fact that this is their new normal.
The Coffee Table ☕
One book I read on the plane ride was Anything You Want: 40 lessons for a new kind of entrepreneur by Derek Sivers. It’s a newly released short read as it only took an hour to read. There is so much wisdom, ideas and insight in this book. If you currently are or have ever considered being an entrepreneur, this book is a must read. Everything Derek writes spurs your thoughts and makes you think! His writing and conversations with me, is a reason Spilled Coffee came to be.
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